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Search Will Eat Itself in 2010

I’ve just written a short piece (which I think I’ll save for next week) which says that in general, it’s not worth trying to beat Google at its own game in 2010, because Google is getting very good at what it does. And in the technical sectors in which we work, which are relatively uncompetitive, that’s true. But in consumer markets, where customers are looking for less sophisticated answers, Google is actually having to rewrite the rules of the game to keep ahead of those who have an awful of lot of time and money to invest in getting what they want from the system. That’s why you’re seeing so much prominence given to “local results” (which can be verified, to some extent) and “real time results”.

There are many predictions for online marketing in the next decade, but they tend to be incremental. Things will change in ways which are far beyond this. I reckon the major developments, whatever they turn out to be, will relate to search engines as we know them imploding. Quote this back to me in ten years’ time, but I reckon they’ll be a direct result of what Paul Kedrosky discusses in Dishwashers, and How Google Eats Its Own Tail.

Happy Christmas, by the way. I think I may now have a couple of days off. There are some things in life which are better than using a computer, and one of them is eating mince pies.

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